Tuesday, June 7, 2011

BKS - a "sure win" trade?

BKS was on a steady decline owing to competition from Amazon. It was making its model obsolete.
Short interest was very high.

When Liberty Media Corporation announced a cash offer to purchase BKS for $17 on May 19th, the stock shot up from $14 to $18 and climb up to a peak of $20 the next few days.

It was very obvious that this was a panic short covering.

I initiated the following trade:


Sell short 1000 shares at 19.  BTO Oct 17 SP for 0.95

The idea is the company was offered a price of $17/- So I am selling a put or an obligation to buy the shares at $17/- for a premium of 95 cents.

At the same time, I expect the price the shares to drop from $19 top $17 over the next few months when the deal is concluded.

As a result I will make $2.95 or 15% when the deal is closed.

I do not expect BKS to go above $20. If for some reasons, it goes up above $20/- I may close the trade with minimal loss.

This is simply too good to be true. If the deal falls through, I expect BKS to fall. If the deal is concluded, I will also make $2.95.

Lets wait to see if I am right.