It has been a while since I posted. It seems there may be a recovery in the economy. I am still not sure. At least there will be a substantial correction before things start going up again. Only then can I be sure of the recovery. Meanwhile my bet is that in the longer term things are still down!
It's probably too early to make a call for a bull.
It was strange the way the market moved in the last few days - straight up and no signs of slowing down. Another sign of over-exuberance and a bubble for at least the short term? I doubt the market will go past S&P 935 on Monday morning. If it does, there will be the huge hurdle of 1000.
The Canadian Dollar should do well at least against the US$. Since I am living here in Canada, I converted a substantial amount of C$ last month. I also bought Canadian dollars against the US$ heavily. It was a timely decision. It is a commodity currency and thus should do well eventually. It is my belief that gold, silver, oil and other commodities will be up again.
At least my bets on oil, shorting treasuries and gold, are doing well.
Fundamentally, I believe there is re-leveraging going on. We went from de-leveraging to re-leveraging with help of the massive injection of printed dollars from the US. Last 2 weeks, we saw COF, SLG, MGM - all highly leveraged and highly in debt companies - move up more than 50%. All these companies were expected to be next on the chopping block for bankruptcy this year! Capital seems to be no longer the issue. Also, junior stocks are ramping up by the 100s of percentage points. So are good times back again?
As for me, I will enjoy it while the times are good. I think the massive money supply will continue for a while under the Obama administration. The flip side is the potential collapse of the dollar and also massive inflation. So it is a no-brainer to short treasury stocks. This is my biggest bet, besides oil and gold.
However, I still maintain that we will see a greater crisis that will bring the DJ and S&P below the low of Jan this year.
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About Me
- Innovestor
- An engineer by training graduated with B.Sc (hons) and MBA from Strathclyde university in Glasgow, Scotland. Started as an engineer in R&D for 3 years with Philips. Then, worked with DuPont for 13 years. Last job was VP, Marketing for Asia Pacific. Left to start a number of companies in various segments which include a large electronic distribution, a VoIP provider, an internet trading portal in Australia,and an executive training consultancy firm. Have listed companies in NYSE, Australia Stock Exchange, Singapore Stock Exchange Main Board. I was on the Board of Directors for 1 company listed in Thailand, 1 in Singapore and 1 in Australia. Was in the senior management of a company listed in NYSE. Still holding major share positions in the VoIP and Executive training companies. Both are private companies.
Disclaimer
These articles merely reflect the opinions of this author and are by no means a guarantee of future economic conditions, market or stock performance. Though the author strives to provide accurate and relevant data, he sometimes relies on external sources and cannot assure the reader of the accuracy of these external sources. Additionally, these articles are provided for INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY and are NOT MEANT to provide investment advice to anyone. For investment advice, please consult your professional adviser.
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