This is one trade that is not going well for me.
It is one of the few trades I am holding on to a losing position.
My long term conviction is that TBT will be up.
Currently, the trend is against me. I continue to sell OTM SCs to reduce cost although it is not enough to cover my cost.
My position is clear. It is a matter of time, bond prices will collapse. I was asked what is the next "black swan" event 1 week ago in a chat. I replied it will be the downgrade of US sovereign debt position and the devaluation of the dollar. The world will lose confidence on US treasuries and dollars.
If it happens, it will be swift and unexpected.
So I am maintaining my TBT long position. Be patient and I will be rewarded.
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About Me
- Innovestor
- An engineer by training graduated with B.Sc (hons) and MBA from Strathclyde university in Glasgow, Scotland. Started as an engineer in R&D for 3 years with Philips. Then, worked with DuPont for 13 years. Last job was VP, Marketing for Asia Pacific. Left to start a number of companies in various segments which include a large electronic distribution, a VoIP provider, an internet trading portal in Australia,and an executive training consultancy firm. Have listed companies in NYSE, Australia Stock Exchange, Singapore Stock Exchange Main Board. I was on the Board of Directors for 1 company listed in Thailand, 1 in Singapore and 1 in Australia. Was in the senior management of a company listed in NYSE. Still holding major share positions in the VoIP and Executive training companies. Both are private companies.
Disclaimer
These articles merely reflect the opinions of this author and are by no means a guarantee of future economic conditions, market or stock performance. Though the author strives to provide accurate and relevant data, he sometimes relies on external sources and cannot assure the reader of the accuracy of these external sources. Additionally, these articles are provided for INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY and are NOT MEANT to provide investment advice to anyone. For investment advice, please consult your professional adviser.
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